. >> jon stewart had a great bit last night where he presented the president with a birthday gift. >> oh, dear. >> we'll show you that later. patrick has a look at the politico play book. patrick. >> good morning, everybody. >> tim pawlenty is feeling confident with his chances in iowa. let's listen. >> i think we are going to do well. i'm confident of that. the same straw poll is more of an organizational thing than a poll. when my record gets out, reducing spending and doing health care reform with no mandates, government take overs and justices and more, we are going to get more momentum. i think you will see that next week. >> where is he getting the confidence from? >> the expectation, two notable things he said i'll do well. what does very well mean? also giving him an out. this organizational popularity. he's only polling 7%. it's behind michele bachmann and myth romney. he's not going to throw an organizational power behind the straw poll saturday even though his name bb on the ballot. saying if i lose there, everybody is going to say i don't have a chance of winning the iowa